Mock Draft 4.0: The Final Reckoning

Kiley brings us his final first round projection (unless he does another one, of course) after wearing out his phone's battery the last few days keeping in close touch with sources around the game.

So, yeah that hasn't changed and likely won't change. If not for the Astros having to give MLB (and thus the draft broadcast on MLB Network) a head's up on their pick 5-10 minutes early last year, no one in the industry (including the club picking second) knew who they were picking until it was announced. The Astros have been creepy quiet as is their club policy and there are still three possible #1 overall picks, but two seemed to have emerged as more likely than the third. Here are the possible scenarios and their ripples, which would appear to end at pick 7.

Moran Scenario Gray Scenario Appel Scenario
1. Astros
Colin Moran
Jonathan Gray
Mark Appel
2. Cubs
Mark Appel
Mark Appel
Jonathan Gray
3. Rockies
Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant
4. Twins
Jonathan Gray
Kohl Stewart
Kohl Stewart
5. Indians
Clint Frazier
Colin Moran
Colin Moran
6. Marlins
Braden Shipley
Braden Shipley
Braden Shipley
7. Red Sox
Kohl Stewart
Clint Frazier
Clint Frazier

You'll notice the Marlins and Rockies get the same player in each of the projections while the two Appel/Gray scenarios are the same, except their names are flip-flopped. I'm not saying this is rocket science, these are just the three routes the top 7 picks look like they can go.

I will pick one of the routes below as my projection, so this isn't a total cop out. It's sounding like Jonathan Gray and Colin Moran are a coin flip right now from polling the industry. These sources are doing educated guesses, which is the best anyone outside the Astros room can do right now. Even the top seven picks in these three scenarios aren't set in stone as I'll detail below; I just think they are the most likely outcome right now in the given situations.

Pick
1
Houston Astros
Height: 6-4
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 21.59
Current Team: Oklahoma
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jeff Luhnow
Scouting Director: Mike Elias
Draft Slot Amount: 7790400

ANALYSIS: This one is still a three horse race and as mentioned above, no one knows for sure where this is going. The consensus last night was that it was 50/50 between Gray and Moran, with the Astros reaching out to Scott Boras to gauge Appel's signability. The rumors are flying that the Astros are trying to nail down who their over slot choices will be to utilize any saved bonus money from #1 to make the decision more objective, with Sean Manaea being the hot name. As is, I think the Astros have Gray/Appel at the top of their board and the lower price and greater certainty over Gray's bonus makes him the pick, as Appel could hold the potential overslot picks and the whole draft hostage. That said, I'm still close to 50/50 split on whether it's Gray or Moran here as it doesn't fit Boras' MO to make Appel's signability easy to pin down here.

Pick
2
Chicago Cubs
Player: Mark Appel
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.89
Current Team: Stanford
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison
Draft Slot Amount: 6708400

ANALYSIS: Part of the reason I think that's true is the rumor I've written for the past month--that the Cubs like Appel enough over Gray to try to offer him slot or even more to tempt him to play coy with Houston to slide to #2--has been making the rounds lately. I think Appel ends up here and, as outlined in the chart above, Moran or Gray at #1 affects the order of the next few picks.

Pick
3
Colorado Rockies
Player: Kris Bryant
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.42
Current Team: San Diego
Position: 3B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dan O'Dowd
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt
Draft Slot Amount: 5626400

ANALYSIS: Bryant sounds like he's the guy here regardless of what happens above, but word is they will take Appel if he makes it here.

Pick
4
Minnesota Twins
Player: Kohl Stewart
Height: 6-3
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.66
Current Team: St. Pius X HS (TX)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Terry Ryan
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
Draft Slot Amount: 4544400

ANALYSIS: In the Moran scenario, I have Minnesota passing on Stewart to take Gray and I think that's the only way Stewart isn't the guy here.

Pick
5
Cleveland Indians
Player: Colin Moran
Height: 6-4
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 20.68
Current Team: North Carolina
Position: 3B
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Chris Antonetti
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
Draft Slot Amount: 3787000

ANALYSIS: It's easy to put Moran here if one of the pitchers go #1, with Frazier and Shipley both real factors. If Moran goes #1, this spot becomes very interesting with Stewart also in that mix. In that case, as shown above I think Frazier is the guy, but it's a legit three horse race.

Pick
6
Miami Marlins
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 21.29
Current Team: Nevada
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Michael Hill
Scouting Director: Stan Meek
Draft Slot Amount: 3516500

ANALYSIS: Lots of rumors flying to the Marlins, with Shipley being the long-time favored pick that fits a number of the rumors (college, underslot, pitcher) but Austin Meadows is still a factor here and a real wild card in general at a lot of picks and the rumor that won't go away is college bat, with D.J. Peterson and Hunter Renfroe still in the running. The crazy bananas Rob Kaminsky rumor was officially shot down by all parties but shows what can happen when Jeff Loria gets involved.

Pick
7
Boston Red Sox
Height: 6-0
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.75
Current Team: Loganville HS (GA)
Position: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye
Draft Slot Amount: 3246000

ANALYSIS: The Red Sox are on Frazier, Meadows, Shipley and Stewart and should get a shot at at least two of them here. Meadows gained ground on Frazier in the private workout but Frazier is still the choice in this scenario.

Pick
8
Kansas City Royals
Player: Trey Ball
Height: 7-6
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 18.94
Current Team: New Castle HS (IN)
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: Lonnie Goldberg
Draft Slot Amount: 3137800

ANALYSIS: Tons of rumors at this pick as well, with Austin Meadows, D.J. Peterson and Phil Bickford all rumored to be the pick and the Royals holding out likely in vain for Shipley as the option. Sounds like pitcher has been the target all along and Ball seems to be the guy, but Bickford is gaining some late traction here. I may be blowing up this whole projection if I get more info supporting the rumors of a Bickford pre-draft deal in the coming hours.

Pick
9
Pittsburgh Pirates
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.26
Current Team: Kentwood HS (WA)
Position: C
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Neal Huntington
Scouting Director: Joe DelliCarri
Draft Slot Amount: 3029600

ANALYSIS: McGuire and Ball are the two targets at this pick, with McGuire believed to be the preference and in this scenario, the preference doesn't matter. If Bickford goes #8, I still have McGuire here and Ball at the next pick.

Pick
10
Toronto Blue Jays
Height: 6-3
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 18.09
Current Team: Grayson HS (GA)
Position: OF
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Scouting Director: Brian Parker
Draft Slot Amount: 2921400

ANALYSIS: Trey Ball is the target here and is expected to be the pick unless Frazier somehow slips this far. J.P. Crawford and Meadows are the secondary preferences and I think the Jays have Meadows ahead of Crawford, but this one is a close call.

Pick
11
New York Mets
Height: 6-1
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 21.43
Current Team: New Mexico
Position: 1B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Sandy Alderson
Scouting Director: Tommy Tanous
Draft Slot Amount: 2840300

ANALYSIS: Peterson has long been rumored here as this or 13 is considered his floor. The Mets want Frazier or Meadows and will take whichever one lasts here, with Hunter Renfroe the option if Peterson and both prep outfielders go ahead of them. Dominic Smith also in contention.

Pick
12
Seattle Mariners
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 18.4
Current Team: Lakewood HS (CA)
Position: SS
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Jack Zduriencik
Scouting Director: Tom McNamara
Draft Slot Amount: 2759100

ANALYSIS: Seattle is on the clubs on Bickford here, but have been heavy of Crawford all spring and sounds like they prefer the shortstop here with Hunter Renfroe also in the mix. Alex Gonzalez and Marco Gonzales both darkhorses in play here.

Pick
13
San Diego Padres
Height: 6-1
Weight: 209
Age (Draft Day): 21.36
Current Team: Mississippi State
Position: C
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Josh Byrnes
Scouting Director: Billy Gasparino
Draft Slot Amount: 2678000

ANALYSIS: San Diego will scoop up Renfroe here if he's on the board, with Bickford and Dominic Smith as backup options.

Pick
14
Pittsburgh Pirates
Height: 6-1
Weight: 200
Age (Draft Day): 17.98
Current Team: Serra HS (CA)
Position: 1B
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Neal Huntington
Scouting Director: Joe DelliCarri
Draft Slot Amount: 2569800

ANALYSIS: Pittsburgh is waiting to see who of the above names fall, with Smith being the target here as the industry consensus top group of talent is running out. Alex Gonzalez, Ryne Stanek and Phil Bickford are the arms that could be in play here.

Pick
15
Arizona Diamondbacks
Player: Aaron Judge
Height: 7-7
Weight: 255
Age (Draft Day): 21.11
Current Team: Fresno State
Position: OF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Kevin Towers
Scouting Director: Ray Montgomery
Draft Slot Amount: 2434500

ANALYSIS: Arizona is also looking to play the board and hope one of the bats fall, but in this scenario they do not. Ryne Stanek and Alex Gonzalez are both in play here but Judge sounds like the guy Arizona wants over both of the pitchers.

Pick
16
Philadelphia Phillies
Player: Tim Anderson
Height: 6-1
Weight: 182
Age (Draft Day): 19.95
Current Team: East Central CC (MS)
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Ruben Amaro
Scouting Director: Marti Wolever
Draft Slot Amount: 2299300

ANALYSIS: THe Phillies love athletes and want Crawford or Dominic Smith here but looks like both go ahead of them. Anderson has all kinds of helium and should be the pick here, with Bickford possibly a fit if the Phillies had more pool money.

Pick
17
Chicago White Sox
Player: Ryne Stanek
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 21.86
Current Team: Arkansas
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Rick Hahn
Scouting Director: Doug Laumann
Draft Slot Amount: 2164000

ANALYSIS: Stanek could fit anywhere from 8 down to 21 and this feels about right. Anderson is a factor here as well and Alex Gonzalez could easily be the pick, as he's now the name that's sliding a bit.

Pick
18
Los Angeles Dodgers
Player: Ian Clarkin
Height: 6-2
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.31
Current Team: Madison HS (CA)
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Ned Colletti
Scouting Director: Logan White
Draft Slot Amount: 2109900

ANALYSIS: The Dodgers have been tied to mostly prep arms with Ciuffo Chris Anderson and Stanek also in play along with Bickford if the money is right. Matt Krook is in their mix but word is they prefer Ian Clarkin, who seems to have teams on him all over the back half of round one.

Pick
19
St. Louis Cardinals
Height: 6-3
Weight: 200
Age (Draft Day): 21.39
Current Team: Oral Roberts
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Dan Kantrovitz
Draft Slot Amount: 2055800

ANALYSIS: Gonzalez's slide ends here as the Cards get another advanced college righty with some similarities to Michael Wacha (but don't look too closely). St. Louis is also on Anderson and Judge along with a number of arms and Billy McKinney that should be at their later pick.

Pick
20
Detroit Tigers
Height: 6-4
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 17.91
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dave Dombrowski
Scouting Director: David Chadd
Draft Slot Amount: 2001700

ANALYSIS: I have Bickford's slide ending here as the Tigers like velo more than anyone else and with a comp pick have the bonus pool to make this work. Jonathon Crawford could easily be the pick if they want to stay closer to slot with Anderson and Judge again being targets.

Pick
21
Tampa Bay Rays
Player: Nick Ciuffo
Height: 6-1
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 18.25
Current Team: Lexington HS (SC)
Position: C
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison
Draft Slot Amount: 1974700

ANALYSIS: Ciuffo has been targeted by Tampa all spring, but as another club looking to make the most of two first rounders, they're also trying to get players from the group of Travis Demeritte, Josh Hart, Marco Gonzales and Chris Anderson. Hart could definitely be the pick here but I think they prefer Ciuffo.

Pick
22
Baltimore Orioles
Player: Eric Jagielo
Height: 6-3
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.05
Current Team: Notre Dame
Position: 3B
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Dan Duquette
Scouting Director: Gary Rajsich
Draft Slot Amount: 1947600

ANALYSIS: Baltimore is also on Ciuffo and Hart but may prefer a quicker-moving college player to supplement the MLB roster. Hunter Harvey and Alex Balog (likely a comp pick) are also in play here.

Pick
23
Texas Rangers
Player: Josh Hart
Height: 6-1
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 18.68
Current Team: Parkview HS (GA)
Position: CF
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg
Draft Slot Amount: 1920600

ANALYSIS: Hart has a lot of teams looking to pop him in the late first and Texas is among those with multiple picks. Texas is fortunate to get him here and they are also trying to get their top two guys from a group of Hart, Demeritte, Crawford with Mercado, Kaminsky and Cody Reed in the mix as well.

Pick
24
Oakland Athletics
Height: 6-3
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.49
Current Team: Bandys HS (NC)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Billy Beane
Scouting Director: Eric Kubota
Draft Slot Amount: 1893500

ANALYSIS: Oakland is on Judge if he slips and has been following Kaminsky closely along with Hunter Dozier but it sounds like they've zeroed in on Harvey at this pick if he's on the board.

Pick
25
San Francisco Giants
Player: Matt Krook
Height: 6-4
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.63
Current Team: St. Ignatius HS (CA)
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Brian Sabean
Scouting Director: John Barr
Draft Slot Amount: 1866500

ANALYSIS: It's lazy but the Giants have been all over the local prep lefty that wants $1.5 million and I don't buy the Christian Arroyo rumors this high, though he may not make it to their second round pick and could be a well underslot guy if Krook is gone (LA being the biggest threat). Aaron Blair also mentioned here.

Pick
26
New York Yankees
Height: 6-2
Weight: 205
Age (Draft Day): 21.6
Current Team: Florida
Position: SP
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer
Draft Slot Amount: 1839400

ANALYSIS: Crawford gets past a number of teams looking at him to the Yankees, who are another club trying to figure out who to take here that wouldn't make it through the next few picks to their slots at 32/33. Kaminsky, McKinney and Clarkin are all options for later and the Bombers will take a long look at Ervin, who slips a little bit here.

Pick
27
Cincinnati Reds
Player: Phil Ervin
Height: 6-10
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 20.89
Current Team: Samford
Position: OF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Walt Jocketty
Scouting Director: Chris Buckley
Draft Slot Amount: 1812400

ANALYSIS: Cincinnati takes Ervin but has been on Jon Denney, Kyle Serrano and Chris Anderson but were hoping the Yankees would pass on Crawford right in front of them.

Pick
28
St. Louis Cardinals
Height: 6-1
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 21.31
Current Team: Gonzaga
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: John Mozeliak
Scouting Director: Dan Kantrovitz
Draft Slot Amount: 1785300

ANALYSIS: Gonzales is in play at most spot in the late teens and 20's as a quick-moving below slot polished lefty. They're also looking at Crawford or Ervin if he slips along with McKinney and Chris Anderson. Local prep righty Devin Williams also in play here. Wouldn't shock me if the Cards took two college arms in the first round if they are the top guys on their board.

Pick
29
Tampa Bay Rays
Height: 6-4
Weight: 225
Age (Draft Day): 20.85
Current Team: Jacksonville
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Andrew Friedman
Scouting Director: R.J. Harrison
Draft Slot Amount: 1758300

ANALYSIS: Anderson's slide ends here and the Rays play the board again to take the best value with a player that looked like a top ten pick early in the year. Mercado and Demeritte are factors here along with Dozier.

Pick
30
Texas Rangers
Height: 6-1
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 18.68
Current Team: Winder Barrow HS (GA)
Position: SS
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jon Daniels
Scouting Director: Kip Fagg
Draft Slot Amount: 1731200

ANALYSIS: Texas gets their guy here with another Atlanta area prep bat as Tampa passes on Demeritte, with some of the guys from their group mentioned above still on the board.

Pick
31
Atlanta Braves
Height: 6-3
Weight: 175
Age (Draft Day): 18.76
Current Team: St. Joseph HS (NJ)
Position: P
Bats: B
Throws: L

General Manager: Frank Wren
Scouting Director: Tony DeMacio
Draft Slot Amount: 1704200

ANALYSIS: Atlanta was hoping for Hart, Clarkin or Krook but settles for another solid lefty in Kaminsky here. Cody Reed and Hunter Green are among the other lefties in contention here.

Pick
32
New York Yankees
Height: 6-1
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.79
Current Team: Plano West HS (TX)
Position: CF
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer
Draft Slot Amount: 1677100

ANALYSIS: McKinney slides through the gauntlet to make it the the second spot of Yankee picks and is a guy they've been targeting for over a year as a member of their travel scout team in the summers.

Pick
33
New York Yankees
Height: 6-5
Weight: 245
Age (Draft Day): 21.33
Current Team: Stanford
Position: OF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Brian Cashman
Scouting Director: Damon Oppenheimer
Draft Slot Amount: 1650100

ANALYSIS: With a lot of their targets falling away in this scenario, the Yankees fall back on getting a second bat in the first round and when looking for big tools with a chance to play everyday in the Bronx, Wilson fits the bill. Dozier and Unroe along with Kyle Serrano and Cody Reed are also in play.

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